India’s rapid economic growth since 2000 has driven a near-fourfold increase in electricity demand, over three-quarters of which was satisfied using coal, resulting in higher levels of PM2.5 pollution in the air and increasing urban deaths between 2000 and 2020, according to a new study.
Researchers led by those from the University of Oxford in the UK said that while a rapid economic growth brought major gains in access to electricity and cleaner cooking in India, a growing reliance on coal-fired power has contributed to worsening outdoor air pollution and a sharp rise in urban air-pollution-related deaths.
The findings, published in the journal Nature Cities, reveal contrasting public-health consequences of India’s economic and energy transition—declining risks from pollution inside homes alongside increasing exposure to polluted outdoor air, they said.
“The challenge is to ensure that the electricity supporting those gains is itself generated more cleanly,” study lead Basudev Swain, from the University of Oxford’s department of physics, said.
The researchers combined satellite observations, atmospheric analysis, chemical transport modelling, socioeconomic and energy data, and population and mortality data.
Between 2000 and 2020, India’s GDP per capita was found to have increased from around USD 600-USD 700 to more than USD 2,000, while electricity demand rose from approximately 450 terawatt-hours (TWh) to almost 2,000 TWh—a 1 per cent increase in GDP per capita was associated with an approximately 1.14 per cent increase in electricity demand.
The rise was accompanied by a significant increase in the number of coal-fired power plants in India, with 71 commissioned before 2000, and another 182 commissioned between 2001 and 2024, the researchers said.
Urban aerosol pollution increased markedly during this period—sulphate, which can form in the atmosphere from sulphur dioxide released by coal combustion, increased from approximately 35.5 per cent of total urban airborne particle pollution in 2000 to 46.4 per cent in 2020, they found.
Atmospheric modelling indicated that the power sector’s contribution to total urban aerosol loading increased from around 16 per cent in 2000 to 36 per cent in 2020, becoming the largest anthropogenic contributor in the analysis.
The largest increases were concentrated across northern and eastern India, including the Indo-Gangetic Plain, where dense populations overlap with extensive coal-fired power infrastructure.
The study estimated that urban deaths attributable to PM2.5 exposure increased from approximately 6,70,000 in 2000 to 8,70,000 in 2020 — an increase of around 30 per cent.
The increase associated with power-sector emissions was particularly pronounced. The modelling estimated that urban PM2.5-attributable deaths associated with power-sector emissions rose from approximately 15,000 in 2000 to nearly 3,00,000 in 2020.
However, inside Indian homes, access to clean fuels and technologies for cooking increased from approximately 25 per cent of the population in 2000 to nearly 75 per cent by 2023.
Independent health datasets showed a decline in deaths attributable to household air pollution, falling from approximately 1.25-1.30 million a year around 2010 to approximately 1 million a year by 2023, during a similar period.
“Here we show that a threefold increase in GDP per capita was associated with a nearly fourfold rise in electricity demand, with coal supplying approximately 76 per cent of total generation,” the authors wrote.
“This coal-dependent expansion increased energy-sector SO2 emissions and contributed to a twofold increase in urban aerosol loading, with sulphate accounting for approximately 46 per cent of the urban aerosol burden,” they said.
“Urban PM2.5-attributable deaths increased from approximately 0.7 million in 2000 to 0.9 million in 2020, with increasing contributions from power-sector emissions,” the team said.
